China's robotics industry will maintain rapid growth

Development Trends (1)

The annual growth rate of newly installed industrial robots is 14%. The number of industrial robots in China has increased to 190,000 units.

The demand for global industrial robots continues to grow. Since 2015, the international economic situation has not been optimistic. The global economic recovery has been slow, and the risk of geopolitics and emergencies has increased. However, with the emergence of a new round of scientific and technological revolutions and industrial changes, new manufacturing models such as smart manufacturing, digital manufacturing, and network manufacturing with the integration of information technology and manufacturing technology are accelerating. Well-developed industrial countries and regions highly value robots. Industrial development, the rise of the robot industry as a national strategy, the above factors make the global robotics industry to maintain rapid development, of which the Asian market response is particularly active. According to statistics from the International Federation of Robotics, global sales of industrial robots were 225,000 units in 2014, an increase of 27% compared to 2013, of which Asian sales accounted for about two-thirds of sales, and sales in the five major markets of China, South Korea, Japan, the United States, and Germany accounted for global industry. About 75% of the total robot sales. From 2005 to 2014, the annual growth rate of newly installed industrial robots was about 14%.

It is expected that in 2016, the economic recovery momentum of developed countries will increase, the development prospects of emerging economies are expected to improve, and global robot demand is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth. The year-on-year growth of industrial robots is expected to be about 15%, that of the Americas and Europe is about 6%, and that of Asia/Australia is about 16%. The top two sales of dedicated service robots are still expected to be national defense robots and milk cows, which account for about half of the sales of service robots. Service robots for personal/home use are expected to sell 8 million units, and mainly housekeeping robots such as vacuum cleaners, grass cutters, window cleaners, and recreational and leisure robots.

China's industrial robot market is rapidly expanding. Since 2015, the downward pressure on China's economy has further increased, and companies are facing more difficulties and challenges than expected. Due to the combined influence of domestic and foreign economies, and with the rapid rise in the cost of labor in China, the demographic dividend has gradually disappeared, and the demand for automation and intelligent equipment including industrial robots has risen rapidly in industrial enterprises. China's robotics industry has achieved healthy and rapid development. In 2014, the number of new installations of industrial robots in China reached 57,000 units, accounting for approximately one quarter of global sales, an increase of 55% year-on-year, and an increase in the number of possessions to 190,000 units.

It is expected that China’s robotics industry will still face more complicated development situation in 2016, but with the further manifestation of domestic “steady growth” policies, the pace of transformation and upgrading of the industrial economy will accelerate, and the endogenous power of economic development will gradually increase. Industrial restructuring and improvement of the ecological environment, China's new installation of industrial robots is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth, year-on-year growth rate is expected to be 30%.

Development Trends (2)

The development and application of independent brands continue to expand

The self-owned brand robot continues to grow and develop. Since 2015, with the release of "Made in China 2025" and its key areas of technology roadmap and the implementation of the three ministries and commissions of the National Development and Reform Commission "Implementation Plan for Intelligent Manufacturing Equipment Innovation Development", and the "Intelligent Manufacturing Pilot Demonstration" of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology The implementation of policies such as the “Special Actions” has accelerated the pace of development and expansion of self-owned brand robots. The first is the rapid development of industrial robots. Taking Xinsong Robotics as an example, from January to July 2015, the company has achieved production and sales of more than 1,800 sets of robots, achieving an output value of approximately 2.8 billion yuan. It is estimated that more than 3,500 sets of robots will be sold in 2015, which can achieve sales revenue of more than 5 billion yuan. The second is that self-owned brand service robots have begun to exert force. The sales volume of cleaning robots soared. In 2015, the sales volume of “Double Eleventh” Cobos reached 315 million units, and the sales volume of single-bottom sweeping robots to reach 100 million units was a major breakthrough in the home service robot industry. The development of self-balancing vehicles accelerated. In 2014, the domestic balance car market saw sales of approximately RMB 1 billion. At present, the domestic balance car market has Ninebot, i-ROBOT, Windrunners, Easystep Technology, Le Bank and other brands. Localization of robot components has accelerated. Guangzhou CNC developed a series of drive and servo motor products, breaking the monopoly of industrial robot drivers and servo motors. Wuhan Fenjin Robot Co., Ltd. has achieved the autonomous production of key components such as motion controllers and precision speed reducers.

It is expected that in 2016, with the "13th Five-Year Development Plan for Strategic Emerging Industries", the "13th Five-Year Plan for Development of the Robot Industry", and the introduction of new policies to promote industrial restructuring and smart manufacturing, manufacturing and domestic policies will be introduced. The demand for robots will continue to grow in such areas as health care, entertainment and education, and public security incident handling. The robot industry will usher in a huge new space for development, and autonomous brand robots will further grow.

The application area continues to expand. Since 2015, on the one hand, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the Guidance Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Industrial Robot Industry, the “Industrialization of the Industrialization of Raw Materials Industry (2015~2018),” and the “Minimum Public Safety Production”. The implementation of relevant projects such as the implementation plan for the “Humanization Special Project” and other related policies have been continuously implemented. On the other hand, local governments have also issued relevant promotion measures. For example, Guangdong proposed that intelligent manufacturing be the starting point for promoting the integration of information technology and industrialization, and actively implement the “equipment substitution” and “production line and production system” transformation projects, and cultivate the top ten intelligent manufacturing demonstration bases in the province to vigorously develop the robot industry. Foshan promotes the application of industrial robots in automobile manufacturing, ceramic appliances, machinery and equipment, and processing of metal materials. Anhui Province promotes the use of industrial robots in industries such as automobiles, home appliances, construction machinery, and shipbuilding. The application of industrial robots has gradually extended from the current automotive, electronics, metal products, rubber and plastics industries to textiles, logistics, defense industry, civil explosives, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, food, raw materials and other industries.

It is expected that in 2016, with the continuous implementation of key-position robot replacement projects, unsafe-manufacturing special projects, and new application demonstration policies, the application fields of industrial robots are expected to extend to labor-intensive textile and logistics industries, with a high degree of danger. The defense industry and civil explosive industries will be used in industries such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and foods that require a high degree of cleanliness in the production environment. At the same time, the applications of robots in ceramics and brick making industries that will endanger human health will also be expanded. Since 2015, industrial robots have been mainly used in areas such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing due to factors such as the industrial base and the willingness of companies, and their industrial robots account for more than half of the country's total.

In 2016, with the acceleration of the implementation of the overall strategy of western development, revitalization of the northeast, rising of the central region, and the first regional development in the east, the use of industrial robots in the central and western regions will also continue to grow. The Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other high-end manufacturing concentration regions. Industrial robots will also be used more.

There is a problem

Independent brand recognition is not high

The main products are low-end products. In 2016, China's robotics industry still has a big gap between overall technology and foreign advanced level. The situation of low-end products made by domestic industrial robots is still difficult to reverse. The main production robots for handling and loading and unloading are mostly three-axis and four-axis robots. They are used in high-end industrial robots with six or more axes in high-end industries such as automobile manufacturing and welding. The market is dominated by Japanese and European and American companies, and domestic six-axis industrial robots account for less than 10% of the country's new installed capacity of industrial robots.

Independent innovation ability is weak. In 2016, the lack of core and key technologies and original ideas and innovative ideas, lack of business-oriented and market demand issues are still outstanding. The industrial robot's high-reliability basic functional components, product design, materials and processes, mainframe mass production, system integration level and other technologies all have a large gap with the developed countries. The technological gaps in high-reliability basic functional components, such as precision reducers, servo motors, servo drives, and controllers, are particularly prominent, and they have long depended on imports. There is a big gap between advanced technologies such as precise control of service robots, multi-sensor information fusion and intelligent control, precision reducer and servo drives, and other core components and processing and assembly processes.

Firms are under great cost pressure. In 2016, the long-term reliance on imports of core components is still difficult to change, and companies are under great cost pressure. In 2015, about 75% of precision reducers were imported from Japan. The main suppliers were Hamernaco, Nabtesco, and Sumitomo; etc.; over 80% of servo motors and drives were imported, mainly from Japan, Europe, America, and China. area. The key parts and components rely heavily on imports, resulting in pressure on production costs for domestic companies. Compared with foreign companies, domestic companies must purchase reducers at prices nearly four times higher and purchase servo drives at nearly twice the price.

The recognition of independent brands is not high. In 2016, the situation in which China’s robot market is dominated by foreign companies will continue, and there is an urgent need for independent brands to grow. Because user companies have become accustomed to using foreign brands, especially the automotive and electronics industries that use the most and have the highest requirements on equipment quality, the ontology and parts products of the independent brands cannot be put into the market as soon as possible, even products with successful application experience are difficult to promote. application. Second, China's industrial robot manufacturers are generally small in size. Among them, 90% of the companies are under 100 million yuan in size. Even if the leading company Shenyang Xinsong achieved a sales income of 1.52 billion yuan in 2014, foreign companies with sales revenues of more than 10 billion yuan such as Yaskawa, Fanuc, and Kuka come Than, still small. Again, competition from foreign products is fierce. In 2014, domestic industrial robots sold 17,000 units in China, accounting for less than 30% of the total market. Foreign-funded enterprises actively expand production, and go from assembly of the whole machine to production of key components. For example, ABB and Yaskawa have established production bases in China. In 2015, Japan's Nabtesco Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Mechatronics jointly invested and settled in Wujin High-tech Zone. It plans to start production at the end of 2016 and to produce 200,000 sets of precision reducers.

preventive solution

Improve policy support system and increase technology research and development

Improve the policy support system. The first is to provide corresponding supporting policies in terms of capital, taxation, product sales subsidies, etc. to increase the use of domestic industrial robots. The second is to study and formulate industrial application guidance policies. The third is to encourage financial capital, venture capital, and private capital to participate in the robotics industry and support qualified companies to directly finance overseas capital markets.

Increase technology research and development efforts. The first is to speed up technology research and development and break through the bottleneck of industrial technology. The second is to research the application of industrial robots for life cycle reliability and manufacturing process technology to overcome key application requirements and achieve industrialization. The third is to make full use of and integrate existing resources and continue to promote the construction of R&D platforms, application verification platforms, and inspection centers for complete machines and key components. The fourth is to build next-generation technology research and development platforms such as artificial intelligence, perception, identification, drive, and control, and also to focus on technological innovations such as energy, big data, security, and materials that have not been incorporated into existing robotic technology systems.

In-depth demonstration applications. The first is to accelerate the development of China's smart manufacturing needs, promote typical application demonstration projects, and conduct application demonstrations of autonomous brand industrial robots in industries such as automotive, electronics, textiles, logistics, defense industry, civil explosives, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and foods. The second is to promote the industrialization of key components such as reducers, controllers, servo motors, actuators, and sensors.

Focus on breakthrough key products. Concentrate major technical funds, focusing on breakthroughs in 2 or 3 types of industrial robots for high-end applications such as automotive and electronics. First, market-oriented, master overall technology, and form a large-scale application, which will in turn drive China's industrial robot-related parts and components. The development of production enterprises. Second, according to the characteristics of customers' diversified needs, select market segments to launch some cost-effective products and gradually seize the domestic SME market.

Accelerate the formulation of industry development plans and standards. The first is to expedite the formulation of industry development plans, specify development priorities, plan industrial layout and development steps, and guide the healthy and orderly development of the national robot industry, forming a full-scale industrial chain with host companies, system integration companies, and parts and industrial service companies. system. The second is to strengthen the top-level design, formulate industry standards and key technical standards, as well as product standards and related application standards.

Strengthen the building of a talent team. The first is to effectively promote the integration of production, teaching and research talents and establish a new mechanism for the joint training of talents by schools and enterprises. Relying on well-known research institutions such as the Chinese Academy of Sciences, through the implementation of large-scale cooperation projects, the joint enterprise has cultivated multi-level technical personnel from R&D, production, maintenance to system integration. The second is the use of vocational training, vocational qualification system, through the actual training of the project to cultivate talent. The third is to strengthen the introduction of high-level talents and attract overseas students to return to China for innovation and entrepreneurship.

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