Upgrading oil countdown to one hundred billion costs difficult to share

China’s efforts to “blown” smog through oil upgrades are accelerating. From July 1st, 2013, China's diesel market will fully implement the "National III" standard; and then, on December 31st, the national deadline for upgrading national vehicle gasoline "Guosan" to "National IV" is approaching. The “National Five” standard draft for gasoline, which is known as the most stringent emission standard in China, was also approved on the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival and is expected to be launched in the third quarter of this year.

Experts in the industry anticipate that if oil products are upgraded to the "National Five" standard, the cost will exceed 100 billion yuan. If the problem of cost sharing is not completely resolved, it will be difficult to change the situation that China's oil products will not rise in quality.

Speed ​​up the oil upgrade to enter the countdown

Since 2012, many areas in China have experienced haze over a wide range of days in a row, and the call for air pollution PM2.5 has been increasing. The quality of oil products has once again become the focus of public opinion.

In view of this, the State Council decided at the executive meeting held in early February this year to accelerate the pace of upgrading domestic refined oil products. It is understood that in the current supply of refined oil, the state-owned refinery has basically completed the upgrading of the plant, and has the ability to produce "Guilsan" diesel oil, ensuring that there is no problem in supply, but is subject to restrictions of oil sources and financial strength, and other conditions, private enterprises The overall progress of oil upgrading is not satisfactory.

With the semi-annual "national three" vehicle gasoline deadline, gasoline and diesel "national five" standard on the agenda, the corresponding oil upgrade is imminent. It is understood that at present, except China, Beijing has taken the lead in using the “Jingwu” (equivalent to “National Five”) standard oil products, and some cities in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong have implemented “National IV” gasoline standards, and Other regions still implement the "National 3" gasoline standard.

100 billion yuan in upgrade costs difficult to share

Behind the difficulty of upgrading oil products is the huge cost pressure brought by initial investment.

"The biggest cost of oil upgrades is the huge capital investment in new installations in the initial period." Zhang Zhuo, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, told reporters.

According to what he learned from the refinery, if a new gasoline reformer is used, it is estimated that the investment will be as much as 600 million to 900 million yuan; and the new hydrogenation device and S-zorb device will have an estimated investment of 300 million yuan. . If the estimated 89 million tons of gasoline production in 2012, assuming that all the new equipment, then the matching investment or up to 100 billion yuan. The initial investment in this part will be fully borne by the refinery companies.

The cost of diesel upgrades is just as great. The reporter learned from Jinling Petrochemical that the company already has “National IV” diesel production capacity, but from “National III” to “National IV”, the cost of refining will increase by about 200 yuan per ton. If the estimated diesel production in 2012 is 170 million tons, the cost of upgrading the domestic diesel to the “National IV” will reach 34 billion yuan. If the schedule is upgraded to the “National Five” standard, the cost will exceed 100 billion yuan.

Regarding the issue of how to apportion such huge costs, the State Council has previously proposed to rationally determine refined oil prices based on the principle of reasonable compensation costs, high quality and preferential prices, and polluter pays, and to improve the subsidy policies for difficult groups and public welfare industries. This means that after the upgrading of oil products, the costs incurred will be borne by the government, enterprises, and consumers, and the government will compensate part of the upgrade costs for the refinery companies.

"If gasoline is upgraded from 'National 3' to 'National IV', the price of oil per liter will increase by 0.3 yuan to 0.4 yuan, and the total cost of consumer spending will be as high as 43 billion yuan, based on the current domestic consumption of 86 million tons of gasoline. Yuan, the average annual increase in expenditure is 700 yuan / ton." Zhang Bin estimates. However, price increases can also be avoided. There are many ways to share the cost of oil upgrading investment, such as investment policy, subsidy policy, and taxation policy.

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